Surface option? Still not buying it

Don't let these cars end up on downtown surface streets.
I’m very pleased to see that my post about the future of Highway 99 through downtown Seattle (tunnel vs. surface streets) has engendered so much interesting debate and commentary.

While recent events have toned down the civic debate about the tunnel – mayoral candidate Mike McGinn conceded he won’t try to block it if elected, while his opponent, Joe Mallahan, has supported the tunnel all along — it’s still not yet a resolved issue.  And I have become ever more convinced that if no tunnel were dug that the virtual elimination of this important highway corridor through our city would be disastrous.

My two main areas of greatest concern relate to economic vitality and the street-level environment.

Historically and globally speaking, all major economic powerhouses are located at key crossroads or transportation convergence points, be they waterways, railroads, highways or a combination.  Seattle is a textbook example of this phenomenon.  No one can deny that the roots of Seattle’s historic economic success story lie in its pivotal location.  Whether going back to 1851 when the founders realized that Elliott Bay was a potentially new “New York Harbor” for the West Coast, or returning to 2009 with Seattle as the midpoint of a north-south, over 100-mile-long metropolitan area, our city’s location has been a preeminent determinant in making it the center of one of the most prosperous and economically viable metropolitan areas in the country.

In short, transportation is a key attribute to any economically viable region, yet our region’s traffic congestion has begun to hinder our economic viability.  Seattle-area traffic congestion ranked ninth worst in the nation last year, while we ranked only 15th in population.  Freight mobility has become a key issue for the region’s industrial sector..

Let’s face it.  No one has a crystal ball here – neither the dyed-in-the-wool surface-streets supporters, nor the diehard tunnel supporters.  Those in favor a streets-only solution believe that the consequent reduced capacity and increased congestion will somehow naturally regulate the traffic flow, weeding out that percentage of current motorists who could switch to transit and/or choose alternative routes or times.  Those of us in favor of the tunnel worry that the resulting traffic congestion and increased travel times may severely hamper our economic vitality.  The questions that occur to me as I contemplate the notion of severing one of our region’s transportation lifelines at the downtown Seattle choke point are the following:

·  If surface-street traffic congestion were to reach day-long gridlock conditions, as I fear, what ultimate effect would that have on freight mobility and the general movement of goods and services that serve our economic vitality?

·  In the face of a future of endless gridlock along the erstwhile Highway 99 corridor, would businesses related to the Port of Seattle and downtown Seattle locations, especially, seek other locations to base and/or conduct their business?  Would they accelerate the tide of industrial business loss from Seattle to the suburbs?

·  Would we gain the dubious distinction of becoming one the top-five worst metros for regional traffic congestion?

As an economic development professional, I can’t tell you how many times I’ve fielded inquiries from folks about the region’s infamous traffic congestion, so I can’t even imagine the perception we’d receive with even worse traffic.

And lastly, even if the city’s or region’s economic vitality would not be at any peril, the urban designer in me shivers at the potential future of downtown’s pedestrian environment with the majority of Highway 99′s vehicle traffic dumped onto our surface streets.  Today, especially in the p.m. peak hour(s), First, Fourth and Fifth avenues are at virtual gridlock.  And some of the steep side streets (especially where the larger office buildings are located) are even worse. It’s not uncommon to see vehicles wait through several full traffic-light cycles before advancing through a single intersection. Does anyone really think these streets can handle the majority of the existing Highway 99 traffic volumes?

I do not profess to know of all of the potential “enhancements” contemplated to accommodate this additional vehicle traffic, but the list may include the following: elimination of parking lanes, greater use of left (and even right) turn prohibitions, reduction in general-purpose lanes, and even, as Mayor Giuliani did in New York, prohibition of pedestrian crossings at key right-turn locations for vehicle traffic.

Even if these “enhancements” could somehow accommodate Highway 99′s traffic, my greatest fear would be the impact to pedestrians, including valuable shoppers, visitors and tourists!

Without curbside parking, pedestrians would no longer be “sheltered” from the impacts of passing vehicles (fumes, noise, splashing, even wind and vibration from larger trucks and buses). With multihour-long gridlock conditions, the cacophony of horns, screeching brakes, together with the fumes and odors of idling vehicles (especially diesel vehicles), would sharply sour the pedestrian’s street-side experience.  Pedestrian street crossing could be hampered.  Increased pedestrian-vehicle and pedestrian-bicycle collisions could ensue.  In summary, I’m quite worried that downtown Seattle would increasingly be shunned by any discretionary visitors (shoppers, tourists, day trippers), losing both its charm, character and economic vitality.

The tunnel opponents don’t want increased traffic on our streets either. But they are willing to risk the potential traffic and pedestrian impacts that I and others fear as a hedge against their greater fear of the tunnel’s cost and potential cost overruns.

We tunnel supporters, fully recognizing that the current proposal is not perfect, fear the impacts to our environment and our economy more than we fear the cost and potential cost overruns.  In fact, I would posit that the potential, permanent adverse economic impacts related to lost business if we do not build a tunnel would more than outstrip the one-time costs of the tunnel.

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  • http://seattletransitblog.com John Jensen

    What about the effects of tolling that lead to people diverting to downtown streets, as well? About the variety of downtown trips that the tunnel can’t serve — throwing cars onto streets as well? Or can we just ignore that, pretend they don’t exist?

    I think you’re making one incorrect assumption. You assume that infrastructure serves demand. In reality, infrastructure creates demand.

  • http://ubiquitousthey.com Sir Learnsalot

    There will be no downtown exits for the tunnel. How will it serve as a “hub” of transportation if it bypasses the downtown core altogether. A significant majority of 99 trips either start or end downtown. People want to get downtown, not around downtown.

  • http://seattletransitblog.com Adam Parast

    More facts please.

    If mobility for goods and services is your largest priority, as I would expect, tolls (with transit and strategic improvements) really are the only way forward. The report below from WSDOT shows this.

    http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/NR/rdonlyres/F36F8FD8-2CF6-4A87-962C-10BAA412ADFA/0/1ExecutiveSummary.PDF

    I would also like to point out that tolls for heavy trucks and light trucks will be four and two times higher than car tolls. So not only is the tunnel more out of the way for trunks to Ballard for example, but it will cost at least 5 dollars a trip.

    http://students.washington.edu/adambp/toll_2008.pdf

    With the surface option I-5 will see improvements to operations through downtown but not with the tunnel. Additionally transit will be significantly improved in the surface option. I can’t find all the documentation but the link below gives you an idea.

    http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/NR/rdonlyres/CF145801-E99D-4367-8780-BCAA32E59A61/0/AWV_CostEstimate_Handout_112008.pdf

    None of the solutions are simple and I think talking about any solution with broad strokes is really rather pointless. They are simply too complex and different to compare and personally lament about.

    P.S. I don’t speak in superlatives but I-605 will never be built. Just take a look at PSRC’s destination 2040 alternatives. These alternatives show the range of transportation investment scenarios (capacity focused to sustainably focused) that are reasonable and a new freeways aren’t anywhere to be seen.

  • Chris

    Is it possible to retrofit the tunnel in the future to add downtown exits? If one wants to get off downtown, take I-5. With surface street option, a person will be barely able to get through downtown or will take 99 to the surface streets and then hit bad traffic.

    By the way, infrastructure does both: it serves and creates demand. The two aren’t mutually exclusive.

  • Matt the Engineer

    It’s ironic that this post follows the “Build it – or else!” post. There’s nothing but fear and speculation here.

    I don’t have enough time to respond to everything in this post, but I’ll hit on a few points:

    1. Slowing down traffic will increase pedestrian and bicycle accidents? Really? Are you just talking about frequency, or severity? I know I feel much more comfortable crossing the street at 1st during game day than I do when there’s little traffic.

    2. If you’re so worried about freight, create special freight lanes like we do for buses. Or even combine them. Or even better, use our great rail system to move freight at a fraction of the fuel and infrastructure cost.

    3. Annoyed at the steep hill traffic? That’s all from cars exiting downtown garages. Why do we have so many car commuters right in the center of downtown? Add an appropriately large parking tax to get these people out of their cars. If we really want to keep people in their cars, I say put a few large garages south and north right at Link light rail.

  • Phil Brown

    Downtown Seattle badly needs an updating and economically the city could use a mega project to provide jobs. The tunnel will do both. Sure, there are risks of a cost overrun, but the greater risk is doing nothing.

  • mhays

    John Jensen — the point is to take care of some of the traffic, not all.

    Sir Learnsalot — a sizeable percentage of traffic wants to get around Downtown, not go to Downtown. There are pretty good statistics about this. That’s who the tunnel serves.

    Chris — retrofitting the tunnel to add exits would be impossible. Well, not literally impossible but close enough.

    Matt — I’ll prefer walking across First when the crosswalks aren’t blocked, thanks! Regarding freight lanes, where does that space come from? It’s all the same street ROW.

  • Matt the Engineer

    [mhays] We have plenty of space, if freight is really as important as you and Patrick believe. Make one of the new lanes at the waterfront a bus and fright only lane.

  • mhays

    The issue is flooding Downtown with pass-through cars and trucks in general. Freight might be the highest priority among the pass-throughs, but your idea doesn’t make the overall problem any better.

  • Matt the Engineer

    [mhays] Patrick’s complaint was aimed at fright, and I’ve proposed a solution. Regarding commuter traffic, I think we’ve been over this enough. The core difference in our opinions is that I believe driving demand can be induced – build more roads and over time traffic will fill those up too, resulting in just as much traffic. I propose that the tunnel doesn’t make the overall problem any better – in fact it will induce more driving leading to more sprawl. But I accept that you don’t buy induced demand, or that you believe it’s not worth the short-term increase in traffic.

  • Matt the Engineer

    Heh. Make that “freight”.

  • mhays

    I agree with induced demand in terms of new roads or added capacity. I even like “road diets” in many cases. But this is an existing high volume roadway.

    Delete a major existing artery and some traffic would go to other modes, and some companies would adopt more efficient locations (gradually over a few years of pain), but much of it would simply reroute (abetted by highwayization of surface streets), or solve itself by companies leaving the area entirely.

    I think the main opportunity to alter mode share is people going Downtown. That’s accomplished by the tunnel with related transit improvements.

    The surface idea might have the opposite effect…by pushing employers and residents away from Downtown, it would probably push jobs to less transit-friendly and walking-friendly locations, thereby worsening mode shares, land use, and energy use.

  • Patrick Doherty

    MHays: That is EXACTLY what I meant when I posted this blog! You explained it very succinctly and accurately in my opinion! I certainly agree that new roads beget new traffic, but this is not a new road, and in fact some of the tunnel detractors from the other side of the spectrum lament that the proposed tunnel would carry less capacity. But, as you stated, since Downtown-bound traffic would not use this tunnel, it should be adequate to handle the valid through traffic that, like it or not, our metro area has developed around. Thanks for your comment! PDD

  • Matt the Engineer

    I just don’t understand how, long term, removing a major road is any different than not building a major road.

  • Shannon Nichol

    Dear Mr. Doherty,
    High-speed freeways and highways have, indeed, helped American cities like Seattle grow (outward) since the mid-century. However, if Seattle’s economic vitality has been and will be uniquely enabled by its ability to host the most extensive and/or uninterrupted freeway configuration through its CBD, then we should all be very afraid of the exquisitely freeway-laced competition cities and towns that represent the vast majority of America’s inland metropolitan areas. Their comparative economic vitality, as an exclusive result of their superior per-capita investments in high-speed vehicle infrastructure, is perhaps worth studying as we plan for our city’s future.

  • andrew

    single occupant vehicles are flat out not sustainable option for transportation. building more road capacity to support them is throwing good money down the tube. gas will not stay at $2.89/gal and WHEN we are paying what the rest of the world pays we will ask ourselves where the public transit is…how many hybrid buses would 3 billion dollars buy? 290. would that help displace the forecast gridlock downtown? i say YES.
    this is a huge waste of money and time is running out for sustainable options – we won’t have appetite for transit taxes once we are still paying off misguided efforts like this.. .

  • mhays

    Realistically, Seattle can do with traffic as the UW has done with parking — in the face of population growth (or student/staff growth at UW), we simply don’t add road capacity, much as the UW didn’t add more parking. Meanwhile Seattle should continue to add transit (more agressively than we are now) and support density rather than sprawl (again, mirroring the UW’s approach). Over a certain period (mid-80s to mid-90s?), the UW grew from a daily 40,000 people to 50,000, without adding parking. This reflected a dramatic shift in travel modes.

    Gas prices will rise as usage grows with the economy, and demand will fall long-term in response. However, much of this will be fuel efficient cars, not different modes or closer workplaces. Those will be factors, but not on even remotely the scale of 99. I suspect that reduced miles will simply offset our population gain.

    Andrew, I suspect you mean 2,900 buses for $3 billion, assuming a little over a million each. We should dramatically expand bus service in Seattle through a Seattle-only measure. In general, buses work if Downtown streets aren’t dominated by traffic headed from Tukwila to Green Lake.

  • Matt the Engineer

    “Gas prices will rise as usage grows with the economy, and demand will fall long-term in response…Those will be factors, but not on even remotely the scale of 99.”
    1. 85% of petroleum geologists disagree with you. Peak oil will be here in the next decade or two, and prices won’t be close to what they are now. The reduction in demand will be sudden and large, despite fuel efficient cars.
    2. The State of Washington has mandated 50% fewer vehicle miles traveled by 2050.

  • Dente

    Patrick has constructed a (purposefully?) flimsy straw man.

    The surface-transit-I-5 alternative involved expanding the N-S throughput capacity not only of surface streets but — much more significantly — Interstate 5. The alternative would have invested on the order of $500 million to provide an additional lane in each direction on I-5 through downtown Seattle (in part by closing some downtown exits and on-ramps). The alternative also would have installed individual variable message boards on I-5 allowing speeds to be optimized for each lane to increase throughput.

  • mhays

    Matt, the peak oil theories I’ve read don’t suggest a massive drop off. I’ve heard numbers like a 1% reduction in supply per year. High prices will keep demand in line with supply. However, high prices will also make a lot of “difficult” oil profitable to extract. That’s why many believe the supply downslope will be gradual.

    If driving does drop in Seattle (despite our near-constant population growth), I’d like to put more surface streets on road diets…the opposite of what your plan does.

  • http://seattletransitblog.com Adam Parast

    @mhays

    I don’t get why you bring up UW. The UW is one of the best examples of demand management and illustrates perfectly how SOV demand is extremely elastic when parking is priced and good transit service is provided, i.e. downtown Seattle.

    @mhays and Patrick

    I think you and Patrick are confusing mobility and accessibility. Mobility is simply the ability to move around freely, accessibility is the ability to get to markets, services, etc that you need.

    So yes moving outwards away from the city increases your mobility in general but it will also reduce your accessibility to the very things that brought you to the city in the first place. These are different problem.

    Also you’re confusing commercial travel with private travel. Commercial travel really can’t change modes so ensuring this traffic can get where it needs to efficiency is important (i.e. tolls). Not so with private travel, which can change modes, time of day, and destination. The majority of trips are private (only about 3,000 truck trips will be in the tunnel in 2030) which do not need a tunnel for accessibility.

    To me this shows the real question, the one that business people like you make but phrased in a different way. Should we be spending ~4.5 Billion on a tunnel solution that is really only needed meet the mobility needs of trucks? As a community are we willing to spend that much money to benefit a small group of constituents?

    You can say yes or no but this is a fundamentally different problem and might be better addressed in the way that Matt the engineer spoke about above.

  • Matt Hays

    The UW’s demand for parking wasn’t elastic, it was stable during a period of campus population growth. This is exactly parallel to a 99 that keeps existing capacity while regional population continues to grow, and does so by encouraging other mode options via carrot and stick.

    I think one or two million locals would dispute your “only for trucks” figure. Do a poll and I bet even Seattle alone would favor a replacement highway of some kind…to say nothing of the near north and south suburbs.

    Your 4.5 billion figure forgets the billions we’d spend with any other alternative, including surface.

    The tunnel doesn’t address outward sprawl so it’s confusing why you’d bring that up. It addresses the city as it is, while also freeing up Downtown to grow, have room for buses, be hospitable to pedestrians, etc.

  • Adam Parast

    @ Matt Hays.

    The whole point of TDM is to avoid building something, like the tunnel. Before UPass E1 and just about every other parking lot was bursting at the seams. Now E1 hardly fills up half way and multiple surface parking lots have been converted into buildings. More info below.

    http://www.toolsofchange.com/en/case-studies/detail/123
    http://www.tc.gc.ca/programs/environment/utsp/tdm/prj62e.htm

    Also, Seattle did vote on two replacement freeways and both failed. Don’t you remember that? It was just a few years ago.

    This could go on and on but its not really productive anymore.

    For me the biggest take away is my disappointment that the DJC is entertaining armchair and knee-jerk editorials. It lessens the credibility of the entire paper.

  • Abdul Alhazred

    Surface has never been an option. The state would pay for an elevated structure, cut & cover, or tunnel.
    * With financing, the tunnel cost will be approximately $6.1B.
    * No provision for future lanes (two lanes each way, and no possible transit/freight preference).
    * No neighborhood access to/from waterfront, Magnolia, West Seattle.
    * No palatable, solid payment provisions have been advanced, only some sources for a fraction of the cost.

    It makes little sense to pick the most expensive option that is also the most limited. As the state faces a $2B deficit, with a revenue gap widening daily, this option looks wrong to me.

    For all their mouthing and posturing, the city council ordinance endorsed paying cost overruns in their Agreement with the state. And while all you outside Seattle city limits aren’t worried about the cost overruns – yet – Mayor McGinn’s on the case now. We’re happy to share.

    It took 25 years to get the Viaduct in the first place. The Nisqually quake shifted the existing span in two places, and those haven’t subsequently moved. What’s the hurry with a tunnel?

    If Seattle citizens held an initiative and dedicated the Alaska Way Viaduct right of way to a park (“Gregoire Waterfront Park” will fit the 1.7 mile space on a map), then the support for a tunnel would decline substantially. Seriously, what would happen if downtown interests, individuals, and entities were forbidden from profiting from the undergrounding? Most of those property owners would choose to not tax themselves extra.