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	<title>Comments on: Surface option? Still not buying it</title>
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	<link>http://www.djc.com/blogs/SeattleScape/2009/10/30/surface-option-still-not-buying-it/</link>
	<description>This blog will focus on how Seattle shapes itself — its design, its planning and its aspirations.</description>
	<pubDate>Sat, 20 Mar 2010 19:53:59 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: Abdul Alhazred</title>
		<link>http://www.djc.com/blogs/SeattleScape/2009/10/30/surface-option-still-not-buying-it/#comment-821</link>
		<dc:creator>Abdul Alhazred</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 21:36:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.djc.com/blogs/SeattleScape/?p=2122#comment-821</guid>
		<description>Surface has never been an option.  The state would pay for an elevated structure, cut &#38; cover, or tunnel.
* With financing, the tunnel cost will be approximately $6.1B.
* No provision for future lanes (two lanes each way, and no possible transit/freight preference).
* No neighborhood access to/from waterfront, Magnolia, West Seattle.  
* No palatable, solid payment provisions have been advanced, only some sources for a fraction of the cost.

It makes little sense to pick the most expensive option that is also the most limited.  As the state faces a $2B deficit, with a revenue gap widening daily, this option looks wrong to me.

For all their mouthing and posturing, the city council ordinance endorsed paying cost overruns in their Agreement with the state.  And while all you outside Seattle city limits aren't worried about the cost overruns - yet - Mayor McGinn's on the case now.  We're happy to share.

It took 25 years to get the Viaduct in the first place.  The Nisqually quake shifted the existing span in two places, and those haven't subsequently moved.  What's the hurry with a tunnel?

If Seattle citizens held an initiative and dedicated the Alaska Way Viaduct right of way to a park ("Gregoire Waterfront Park" will fit the 1.7 mile space on a map), then the support for a tunnel would decline substantially.  Seriously, what would happen if downtown interests, individuals, and entities were forbidden from profiting from the undergrounding? Most of those property owners would choose to not tax themselves extra.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Surface has never been an option.  The state would pay for an elevated structure, cut &amp; cover, or tunnel.<br />
* With financing, the tunnel cost will be approximately $6.1B.<br />
* No provision for future lanes (two lanes each way, and no possible transit/freight preference).<br />
* No neighborhood access to/from waterfront, Magnolia, West Seattle.<br />
* No palatable, solid payment provisions have been advanced, only some sources for a fraction of the cost.</p>
<p>It makes little sense to pick the most expensive option that is also the most limited.  As the state faces a $2B deficit, with a revenue gap widening daily, this option looks wrong to me.</p>
<p>For all their mouthing and posturing, the city council ordinance endorsed paying cost overruns in their Agreement with the state.  And while all you outside Seattle city limits aren&#8217;t worried about the cost overruns - yet - Mayor McGinn&#8217;s on the case now.  We&#8217;re happy to share.</p>
<p>It took 25 years to get the Viaduct in the first place.  The Nisqually quake shifted the existing span in two places, and those haven&#8217;t subsequently moved.  What&#8217;s the hurry with a tunnel?</p>
<p>If Seattle citizens held an initiative and dedicated the Alaska Way Viaduct right of way to a park (&#8221;Gregoire Waterfront Park&#8221; will fit the 1.7 mile space on a map), then the support for a tunnel would decline substantially.  Seriously, what would happen if downtown interests, individuals, and entities were forbidden from profiting from the undergrounding? Most of those property owners would choose to not tax themselves extra.</p>
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		<title>By: Adam Parast</title>
		<link>http://www.djc.com/blogs/SeattleScape/2009/10/30/surface-option-still-not-buying-it/#comment-818</link>
		<dc:creator>Adam Parast</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:29:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.djc.com/blogs/SeattleScape/?p=2122#comment-818</guid>
		<description>@ Matt Hays.

The whole point of TDM is to avoid building something, like the tunnel. Before UPass E1 and just about every other parking lot was bursting at the seams. Now E1 hardly fills up half way and multiple surface parking lots have been converted into buildings. More info below. 

http://www.toolsofchange.com/en/case-studies/detail/123
http://www.tc.gc.ca/programs/environment/utsp/tdm/prj62e.htm

Also, Seattle did vote on two replacement freeways and both failed. Don't you remember that? It was just a few years ago. 

This could go on and on but its not really productive anymore.

For me the biggest take away is my disappointment that the DJC is entertaining armchair and knee-jerk editorials. It lessens the credibility of the entire paper.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ Matt Hays.</p>
<p>The whole point of TDM is to avoid building something, like the tunnel. Before UPass E1 and just about every other parking lot was bursting at the seams. Now E1 hardly fills up half way and multiple surface parking lots have been converted into buildings. More info below. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.toolsofchange.com/en/case-studies/detail/123" rel="nofollow">http://www.toolsofchange.com/en/case-studies/detail/123</a><br />
<a href="http://www.tc.gc.ca/programs/environment/utsp/tdm/prj62e.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.tc.gc.ca/programs/environment/utsp/tdm/prj62e.htm</a></p>
<p>Also, Seattle did vote on two replacement freeways and both failed. Don&#8217;t you remember that? It was just a few years ago. </p>
<p>This could go on and on but its not really productive anymore.</p>
<p>For me the biggest take away is my disappointment that the DJC is entertaining armchair and knee-jerk editorials. It lessens the credibility of the entire paper.</p>
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		<title>By: Matt Hays</title>
		<link>http://www.djc.com/blogs/SeattleScape/2009/10/30/surface-option-still-not-buying-it/#comment-817</link>
		<dc:creator>Matt Hays</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Nov 2009 06:36:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.djc.com/blogs/SeattleScape/?p=2122#comment-817</guid>
		<description>The UW's demand for parking wasn't elastic, it was stable during a period of campus population growth.  This is exactly parallel to a 99 that keeps existing capacity while regional population continues to grow, and does so by encouraging other mode options via carrot and stick.  

I think one or two million locals would dispute your "only for trucks" figure.  Do a poll and I bet even Seattle alone would favor a replacement highway of some kind...to say nothing of the near north and south suburbs.  

Your 4.5 billion figure forgets the billions we'd spend with any other alternative, including surface.  

The tunnel doesn't address outward sprawl so it's confusing why you'd bring that up.  It addresses the city as it is, while also freeing up Downtown to grow, have room for buses, be hospitable to pedestrians, etc.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The UW&#8217;s demand for parking wasn&#8217;t elastic, it was stable during a period of campus population growth.  This is exactly parallel to a 99 that keeps existing capacity while regional population continues to grow, and does so by encouraging other mode options via carrot and stick.  </p>
<p>I think one or two million locals would dispute your &#8220;only for trucks&#8221; figure.  Do a poll and I bet even Seattle alone would favor a replacement highway of some kind&#8230;to say nothing of the near north and south suburbs.  </p>
<p>Your 4.5 billion figure forgets the billions we&#8217;d spend with any other alternative, including surface.  </p>
<p>The tunnel doesn&#8217;t address outward sprawl so it&#8217;s confusing why you&#8217;d bring that up.  It addresses the city as it is, while also freeing up Downtown to grow, have room for buses, be hospitable to pedestrians, etc.</p>
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		<title>By: Adam Parast</title>
		<link>http://www.djc.com/blogs/SeattleScape/2009/10/30/surface-option-still-not-buying-it/#comment-816</link>
		<dc:creator>Adam Parast</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 12:58:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.djc.com/blogs/SeattleScape/?p=2122#comment-816</guid>
		<description>@mhays

I don't get why you bring up UW. The UW is one of the best examples of demand management and illustrates perfectly how SOV demand is extremely elastic when parking is priced and good transit service is provided, i.e. downtown Seattle. 

@mhays and Patrick

I think you and Patrick are confusing mobility and accessibility. Mobility is simply the ability to move around freely, accessibility is the ability to get to markets, services, etc that you need. 

So yes moving outwards away from the city increases your mobility in general but it will also reduce your accessibility to the very things that brought you to the city in the first place. These are different problem. 

Also you're confusing commercial travel with private travel. Commercial travel really can't change modes so ensuring this traffic can get where it needs to efficiency is important (i.e. tolls). Not so with private travel, which can change modes, time of day, and destination. The majority of trips are private (only about 3,000 truck trips will be in the tunnel in 2030) which do not need a tunnel for accessibility. 

To me this shows the real question, the one that business people like you make but phrased in a different way. Should we be spending ~4.5 Billion on a tunnel solution that is really only needed meet the mobility needs of trucks? As a community are we willing to spend that much money to benefit a small group of constituents? 

You can say yes or no but this is a fundamentally different problem and might be better addressed in the way that Matt the engineer spoke about above.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@mhays</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t get why you bring up UW. The UW is one of the best examples of demand management and illustrates perfectly how SOV demand is extremely elastic when parking is priced and good transit service is provided, i.e. downtown Seattle. </p>
<p>@mhays and Patrick</p>
<p>I think you and Patrick are confusing mobility and accessibility. Mobility is simply the ability to move around freely, accessibility is the ability to get to markets, services, etc that you need. </p>
<p>So yes moving outwards away from the city increases your mobility in general but it will also reduce your accessibility to the very things that brought you to the city in the first place. These are different problem. </p>
<p>Also you&#8217;re confusing commercial travel with private travel. Commercial travel really can&#8217;t change modes so ensuring this traffic can get where it needs to efficiency is important (i.e. tolls). Not so with private travel, which can change modes, time of day, and destination. The majority of trips are private (only about 3,000 truck trips will be in the tunnel in 2030) which do not need a tunnel for accessibility. </p>
<p>To me this shows the real question, the one that business people like you make but phrased in a different way. Should we be spending ~4.5 Billion on a tunnel solution that is really only needed meet the mobility needs of trucks? As a community are we willing to spend that much money to benefit a small group of constituents? </p>
<p>You can say yes or no but this is a fundamentally different problem and might be better addressed in the way that Matt the engineer spoke about above.</p>
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		<title>By: mhays</title>
		<link>http://www.djc.com/blogs/SeattleScape/2009/10/30/surface-option-still-not-buying-it/#comment-814</link>
		<dc:creator>mhays</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 21:42:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.djc.com/blogs/SeattleScape/?p=2122#comment-814</guid>
		<description>Matt, the peak oil theories I've read don't suggest a massive drop off.  I've heard numbers like a 1% reduction in supply per year.  High prices will keep demand in line with supply.  However, high prices will also make a lot of "difficult" oil profitable to extract.  That's why many believe the supply downslope will be gradual.  

If driving does drop in Seattle (despite our near-constant population growth), I'd like to put more surface streets on road diets...the opposite of what your plan does.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Matt, the peak oil theories I&#8217;ve read don&#8217;t suggest a massive drop off.  I&#8217;ve heard numbers like a 1% reduction in supply per year.  High prices will keep demand in line with supply.  However, high prices will also make a lot of &#8220;difficult&#8221; oil profitable to extract.  That&#8217;s why many believe the supply downslope will be gradual.  </p>
<p>If driving does drop in Seattle (despite our near-constant population growth), I&#8217;d like to put more surface streets on road diets&#8230;the opposite of what your plan does.</p>
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		<title>By: Dente</title>
		<link>http://www.djc.com/blogs/SeattleScape/2009/10/30/surface-option-still-not-buying-it/#comment-813</link>
		<dc:creator>Dente</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 20:57:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.djc.com/blogs/SeattleScape/?p=2122#comment-813</guid>
		<description>Patrick has constructed a (purposefully?) flimsy straw man.  

The surface-transit-I-5 alternative involved expanding the N-S throughput capacity not only of surface streets but -- much more significantly -- Interstate 5.  The alternative would have invested on the order of $500 million to provide an additional lane in each direction on I-5 through downtown Seattle (in part by closing some downtown exits and on-ramps).  The alternative also would have installed individual variable message boards on I-5 allowing speeds to be optimized for each lane to increase throughput.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Patrick has constructed a (purposefully?) flimsy straw man.  </p>
<p>The surface-transit-I-5 alternative involved expanding the N-S throughput capacity not only of surface streets but &#8212; much more significantly &#8212; Interstate 5.  The alternative would have invested on the order of $500 million to provide an additional lane in each direction on I-5 through downtown Seattle (in part by closing some downtown exits and on-ramps).  The alternative also would have installed individual variable message boards on I-5 allowing speeds to be optimized for each lane to increase throughput.</p>
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		<title>By: Matt the Engineer</title>
		<link>http://www.djc.com/blogs/SeattleScape/2009/10/30/surface-option-still-not-buying-it/#comment-812</link>
		<dc:creator>Matt the Engineer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 20:53:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.djc.com/blogs/SeattleScape/?p=2122#comment-812</guid>
		<description>"Gas prices will rise as usage grows with the economy, and demand will fall long-term in response...Those will be factors, but not on even remotely the scale of 99."
1. &lt;a href="http://daily.sightline.org/daily_score/archive/2008/10/31/geologists-the-end-is-nigh" rel="nofollow"&gt;85% of petroleum geologists disagree with you.&lt;/a&gt;  Peak oil will be here in the next decade or two, and prices won't be close to what they are now.  The reduction in demand will be sudden and large, despite fuel efficient cars.
2. The State of Washington has mandated 50% fewer vehicle miles traveled by 2050.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Gas prices will rise as usage grows with the economy, and demand will fall long-term in response&#8230;Those will be factors, but not on even remotely the scale of 99.&#8221;<br />
1. <a href="http://daily.sightline.org/daily_score/archive/2008/10/31/geologists-the-end-is-nigh" rel="nofollow">85% of petroleum geologists disagree with you.</a>  Peak oil will be here in the next decade or two, and prices won&#8217;t be close to what they are now.  The reduction in demand will be sudden and large, despite fuel efficient cars.<br />
2. The State of Washington has mandated 50% fewer vehicle miles traveled by 2050.</p>
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		<title>By: mhays</title>
		<link>http://www.djc.com/blogs/SeattleScape/2009/10/30/surface-option-still-not-buying-it/#comment-811</link>
		<dc:creator>mhays</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 19:36:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.djc.com/blogs/SeattleScape/?p=2122#comment-811</guid>
		<description>Realistically, Seattle can do with traffic as the UW has done with parking -- in the face of population growth (or student/staff growth at UW), we simply don't add road capacity, much as the UW didn't add more parking.  Meanwhile Seattle should continue to add transit (more agressively than we are now) and support density rather than sprawl (again, mirroring the UW's approach).  Over a certain period (mid-80s to mid-90s?), the UW grew from a daily 40,000 people to 50,000, without adding parking.  This reflected a dramatic shift in travel modes.  

Gas prices will rise as usage grows with the economy, and demand will fall long-term in response.  However, much of this will be fuel efficient cars, not different modes or closer workplaces.  Those will be factors, but not on even remotely the scale of 99.  I suspect that reduced miles will simply offset our population gain.  

Andrew, I suspect you mean 2,900 buses for $3 billion, assuming a little over a million each.  We should dramatically expand bus service in Seattle through a Seattle-only measure.  In general, buses work if Downtown streets aren't dominated by traffic headed from Tukwila to Green Lake.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Realistically, Seattle can do with traffic as the UW has done with parking &#8212; in the face of population growth (or student/staff growth at UW), we simply don&#8217;t add road capacity, much as the UW didn&#8217;t add more parking.  Meanwhile Seattle should continue to add transit (more agressively than we are now) and support density rather than sprawl (again, mirroring the UW&#8217;s approach).  Over a certain period (mid-80s to mid-90s?), the UW grew from a daily 40,000 people to 50,000, without adding parking.  This reflected a dramatic shift in travel modes.  </p>
<p>Gas prices will rise as usage grows with the economy, and demand will fall long-term in response.  However, much of this will be fuel efficient cars, not different modes or closer workplaces.  Those will be factors, but not on even remotely the scale of 99.  I suspect that reduced miles will simply offset our population gain.  </p>
<p>Andrew, I suspect you mean 2,900 buses for $3 billion, assuming a little over a million each.  We should dramatically expand bus service in Seattle through a Seattle-only measure.  In general, buses work if Downtown streets aren&#8217;t dominated by traffic headed from Tukwila to Green Lake.</p>
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		<title>By: andrew</title>
		<link>http://www.djc.com/blogs/SeattleScape/2009/10/30/surface-option-still-not-buying-it/#comment-810</link>
		<dc:creator>andrew</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 18:32:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.djc.com/blogs/SeattleScape/?p=2122#comment-810</guid>
		<description>single occupant vehicles are flat out not sustainable option for transportation. building more road capacity to support them is throwing good money down the tube. gas will not stay at $2.89/gal and WHEN we are paying what the rest of the world pays we will ask ourselves where the public transit is...how many hybrid buses would 3 billion dollars buy? 290. would that help displace the forecast gridlock downtown? i say YES. 
this is a huge waste of money and time is running out for sustainable options - we won't have appetite for transit taxes once we are still paying off misguided efforts like this.. .</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>single occupant vehicles are flat out not sustainable option for transportation. building more road capacity to support them is throwing good money down the tube. gas will not stay at $2.89/gal and WHEN we are paying what the rest of the world pays we will ask ourselves where the public transit is&#8230;how many hybrid buses would 3 billion dollars buy? 290. would that help displace the forecast gridlock downtown? i say YES.<br />
this is a huge waste of money and time is running out for sustainable options - we won&#8217;t have appetite for transit taxes once we are still paying off misguided efforts like this.. .</p>
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		<title>By: Shannon Nichol</title>
		<link>http://www.djc.com/blogs/SeattleScape/2009/10/30/surface-option-still-not-buying-it/#comment-809</link>
		<dc:creator>Shannon Nichol</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 15:14:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.djc.com/blogs/SeattleScape/?p=2122#comment-809</guid>
		<description>Dear Mr. Doherty,
High-speed freeways and highways have, indeed, helped American cities like Seattle grow (outward) since the mid-century. However, if Seattle's economic vitality has been and will be uniquely enabled by its ability to host the most extensive and/or uninterrupted freeway configuration through its CBD, then we should all be very afraid of the exquisitely freeway-laced competition cities and towns that represent the vast majority of America's inland metropolitan areas. Their comparative economic vitality, as an exclusive result of their superior per-capita investments in high-speed vehicle infrastructure, is perhaps worth studying as we plan for our city's future.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dear Mr. Doherty,<br />
High-speed freeways and highways have, indeed, helped American cities like Seattle grow (outward) since the mid-century. However, if Seattle&#8217;s economic vitality has been and will be uniquely enabled by its ability to host the most extensive and/or uninterrupted freeway configuration through its CBD, then we should all be very afraid of the exquisitely freeway-laced competition cities and towns that represent the vast majority of America&#8217;s inland metropolitan areas. Their comparative economic vitality, as an exclusive result of their superior per-capita investments in high-speed vehicle infrastructure, is perhaps worth studying as we plan for our city&#8217;s future.</p>
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