“Business over the last year has been white hot,” said Rob Aigner, executive managing director for the Northwest region of broker Colliers International. “It’s been the most active market that I’ve seen in 20 years.”

But, said Aigner, there has been a change since last fall’s presidential election. The fallout from a weak Wall Street has affected the growth plans of many high-tech companies, including the likes of Microsoft, Amazon.com, Onvia.com, Network Commerce (shopnow.com) and WRQ. Aigner said all those firms are giving space back to the market. “It’s come around half-circle,” he said, adding there is now less capital available for high-tech firms, and the capital that is available is much more cautious.

“What we have today, by historical standards, is an enormous amount of sublease space available,” Aigner said, estimating there is now more than one million square feet of such space downtown.

By historical standards, it takes 12-15 months for 1 million square feet of office space to be absorbed in the Seattle market, Aigner said. But he thinks the space will be filled in less than 12 months by new companies and those buying out the fledgling dot-coms.

Sublease space is going to have competition from new space in a number of projects like One Convention Place, Millennium Tower, the Seventh and Olive building, and Metropolitan Park North. “The good news is that the buildings have had a lot of prelease activity,” he said.

Aigner said sublease space is usually offered at less than market rates because tenants typically are trying to get out of an expense obligation, as opposed to landlords, who are seeking to create long-term value under standard leases.

According to Aigner, lease rates went up 15-20 percent last year as cash-rich companies waiting to take space didn’t care about rents as much as getting the space to start their businesses. Now, companies want to cut expenses to stay alive.

“What we’re getting is not the same increase in rental rate growth as last year,” he said.

“I see flatness in rental growth continuing until summer of this year as landlords and tenants try to figure it out,” Aigner said. “We’re in a catch-your-breath mode now. Where it goes after June or July is anybody’s guess.” Aigner said there is a possibility that lease rates could drop as they did in San Francisco last year, but he hasn’t seen that yet.

While last year was a suppliers’ market, this year will see a market that is in equilibrium, according to Aigner. He said that doesn’t mean it will be a bad market, though.

Surprisingly, not many brokerage firms from out of town tried to jump in on Seattle’s hot market. The only firm that Aigner could name was the Staubach Co. “Seattle’s a tough market to penetrate because it’s an insiders’ market,” he said.

Aigner said there is some concern from brokers about how they can maintain the level of activity they saw last year. “Brokers in the year 2000 probably came off some of their best years ever.”

Colliers is getting a lot more resumes this year from brokers seeking work. Aigner said people left the brokerage industry last year to get into dot-coms. Now they’re coming back.