Downtown Seattle retail: one size doesn't fit all

By PATRICIA M. JOHNSON and RICHARD F. OUTCALT
Outcalt & Johnson

In our view, just building new stores and restaurants does not make a "successful" downtown. In fact, there is so much capital available to build indisciminately that "success" might be trampled to death.

Downtown Seattle may be on the threshold of that experience right now. Let's step back and take a look at the big picture.

Five major markets

In our view, there are five major -- and decidedly different -- markets of potential customers for retailing in downtown Seattle. These are:

• Business Traveler/Convention Attendee

• Vacation Travelers/Families/Tourists

• Downtown Workers/Commuters

• In City/Close-In Residents

• Suburban and Regional Residents

Few retailers recognize the distinctions between these groups, and even fewer developers and leasing agents. Still believing in "Location, location, location" they fail to recognize how these group differ in their shopping behaviors and priorities. The all-too-predictable results? "Underperforming stores" and needlessly premature vacancies.

Members of the Vacation Traveler/Families/Tourist group like Danish visitors Gunnild Nielsen, his wife Jan Almquist and their daughter Anna, are usually on a tight budget. Vacationers usually shop for less costly souvenirs like T-shirts and coffee mugs. Photos BY JON SAVELLE

The first two groups -- travelers for business or pleasure -- are clearly intermittent, one-time-only customers. The Business Traveler/Convention Attendee, while often on an expense account for meals and lodging, is typically pressed for time. Purchases (especially gifts to take home) are likely to be at full retail, and perhaps of something indigenous to Seattle (which includes being purchased from Nordstrom, Eddie Bauer, REI, Starbucks, etcetera.)

The Vacation Travelers/Families/Tourists are decidedly on a budget, and have many applications for their money: food, lodging, transportation and entertainment. Their purchases may be of the less costly souvenir variety (T-shirts and coffee mugs come to mind).

The Downtown Workers/Commuters tend to split into two groups: professionals such as attorneys, accountants, architects, dentists, banking, insurance, investment executives, etcetera, and office staff workers and retail selling staff (often younger with higher turnover in jobs). Any shopping done by these folks is often on their lunch hour. They seldom return to downtown in the evenings, and are highly unlikely to come back on the weekends.

The In-City/Close-In Residents come from the Regrade and Belltown, Pioneer Square, Queen Anne and Capitol Hill. They use downtown essentially as their shopping center. Rather than driving to Southcenter or Bellevue Square, they shop downtown. The true In-City Residents are challenged to find supermarkets, hardware stores and gas stations, however. Indeed, Queen Anne Hill and Capitol Hill must satisfy those requirements for them.

The Suburban and Regional Residents range from Mercer Island to Bellevue, Kirkland, Issaquah, Olympia, Bellingham, Wenatchee, Yakima and beyond. These are the folks who use Seattle for infrequent special trips: Christmas shopping, back-to-school shopping, a weekend getaway wrapped around a Mariners or Husky game, a Fifth Avenue Theatre production, the Seattle Art Museum, Museum of Flight, the Seattle Symphony, or whatever suits their tastes and interests.

'Success' for which group?

The shopping priorities and needs are dramatically different for each of these groups. Indeed, "success" with one of these groups may come at the expense of another one. Nike Town and Planet Hollywood, for example, are oriented to the Business Travelers, the Vacationing Travelers and some of the Suburban & Regional Residents.

The daily commuters and close-in residents quickly get to the yawn stage of "been there, done that" with such retailers. So these groups may simply avoid Sixth Avenue, perhaps to the detriment of Old Navy and other retailers who rely on frequently returning customers.

In-City/Close-In Residents like Eugene Allen (left) and his big brother Victor tend to use downtown Seattle as their shopping center. In-city shoppers are challenged to find supermarkets and hardware stores.

In fact, understanding these five different shopper groups allows us to anticipate that Old Navy is mis-sited. It should instead be located where the downtown Gap Store presently is, closer to Ross, Loehmann's and The Rack. For an Old Navy store to share a corner with a Gene Juarez Salon, across the street from the Eileen Fisher boutique, is a clear demonstration of a real-estate-driven, not a shopper-driven, decision!

This mistake could have, and should have, been anticipated and avoided. Once again, the landlord is the winner; the shopper is the loser.

Shopper lifestages

What about downtown Seattle's retail future? Will all the retail redevelopment that is underway be successful?

Once again, retail success will depend on: the shopper! Which shopper can downtown appeal to and sustain? We believe that answer is driven by Shopper Lifestages.

The four major Shopper Lifestages of critical importance to retailers are these: SINKs and DINKs (that's Single Income No Kids and Dual Income No Kids); Households with children under the age of 12; Households with teenagers; and, what others call Aging Baby Boomers or Empty Nesters we call "Reborn SINKs & DINKs!"

Each of these groups exhibits particular shopping preferences. Consider this:

• SINKs and DINKs drawn to somewhat urban settings: Capitol Hill and Broadway, Fremont, Crossroads Shopping Center, University Village, downtown Seattle, etc. 29 percent of Seattle area households.

• Households with Kids 12 and Under drawn to covered malls and popular prices: Southcenter, Alderwood, Factoria, Target, Fred Meyer, Old Navy, etc. 16 percent of Seattle area households.

• Households with Teenagers more likely to shop the "big boxes," Costco, Eagle, the Overlake area-Sears, Fred Meyer, etc. 15 percent of Seattle area households

• Reborn SINKs & DINKs more likely to seek "urbane" experiences: downtown Seattle, Bellevue Place, the specialty shops at the Pike Place Market and parts of First Avenue, University Village, etc. 23 percent of Seattle area households.

The balance of Seattle area households, approximately 18 percent, are the "Retireds," which we are setting aside for purposes of this discussion.

Business Traveler/Convention Attendee shoppers such as Dolores Malvitz (left) from Atlanta and Judy Feinstein of Hallowell, Me., are pressed for time. Business travelers like to take home something "indigenous" to Seattle - which includes items purchased at Nordstrom.

Moreover, there are some other key drivers to retail shopping: discretionary money and discretionary time. How do these major lifestages compare on those factors?

The accompanying chart shows the problem: Of these four lifestage groups, only two are likely to gravitate to a downtown for their shopping. And only one is really going to spend heartily.

Ah, but therein lies the opportunity. We believe that the Reborn SINKs and DINKs are on the brink of "discovering" downtowns. Remember, these are the folks raised in the suburbs, who got their basic training in shopping malls. Now that their children are grown, they are able to once again spend on their favorite subject -- themselves! They will zealously pursue and savor the "urbane experience" of downtown -- entertainment shopping, entertainment dining, and entertainment -- the theater, the symphony, the galleries and museums, and more.

Plus, they will expect deferential (if not preferential) treatment, a multiplicity of experiences and will demand an on-going stream of new! unique! distinctive!

These Reborns will seek the Urbane Experience wherever it occurs, our downtown or someone else (i.e., Portland, San Francisco, Vancouver B.C., Chicago, Boston, New York, the world). Downtown Seattle's competition for the hearts, minds (and wallets) of the Reborns is not Bellevue Square.

Time for a bold stroke

Another of our concerns is the seemingly shotgun approach to marketing downtown. One remedy is to make downtown customers feel instantly knowledgeable about what is where. Similar to every shopping mall in America, directories of downtown retail should be placed at every intersection. (Want shoes? Check the brown dots. Want outerwear? Look for the blue.)

But the biggest concern we have is parking. Retail is a mirror of society, not an urban planning tool. The best potential shopper for downtown's urbane experience is the Reborn SINK and DINK. And those folks are not ready to abandon their cars.

The Reborns believe that downtown parking is (a) expensive (b) scarce and (c) in places that don't look like a shopping mall parking lot! True or not, the perception is a killer for downtown's primary target market.

Old Navy is sited near Niketown and Planet Hollywood on Sixth Avenue. downtown workers and close-in residents may simply avoid the tourist area - and Old Navy. Photo by Jon Savelle

So, what's needed? Only a bold stroke will do, a big step that will stamp out the misperception. The little steps taken to date (or even in the planning stages) won't do.

We propose making the Metro Bus Tunnel available as (a) free (b) dry (c) secured (d) convenient auto parking when the buses are under-using it: the 110 best retail shopping days of the year -- Saturdays, Sundays and holidays.

We cannot wait. Every Reborn SINK and DINK who comes to downtown and decides "It's not for me" is one more shopper Seattle's downtown will not get back.

Copyright © 1998 Seattle Daily Journal of Commerce.