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Who would have predicted Redmond Town Center would go from an enclosed regional mall plan to a multi-story open air project? Who would have guessed that Aurora Village would be completely demolished to make way for a new open air power center? Who would have thought that most new retail projects would no longer feature significant amounts of speculative shop space but rather consist almost entirely of "build to suits" for specific tenants with very specific design criteria.
And who would have forecast that the present wave of development would be fueled not by the speculative developers of the 1980s, but by the publicly held tenants themselves, expanding at an ever increasing pace, based more on growth projections promised to their shareholders than on actual market demand?
Unlike the retail districts of many major metropolitan cities, Seattle and Bellevue continue to strengthen their already enviable downtowns.
We have all witnessed the dramatic series of announcements regarding the commitment of Nordstrom to renovate and move into the vacant Frederick and Nelson building and the ripple effect it has had on Seattle's retail core.
And downtown Bellevue, which for many years has been dominated by the retail presence of Bellevue Square, has begun to attract a significant number of other retail tenants in its pedestrian core including Barnes and Noble Books, the Good Guys and California Pizza Kitchen. And if rumors are to be believed, soon one or more multiplex cinemas will replace the void in the market left by the recent closure of the John Danz theater.
The malls
One trend clearly not anticipated back in 1985 is enclosed mall demolitions ("demalling" in shopping center jargon). There appears to be a growing realization among developers and institutional investors that in certain select markets, the aging regional shopping center has long since served its purpose and the customer base would be better served in a format that includes strong choices in several categories in an open air format.
Our firm is presently involved in two regional malls in the Midwest that will either be partially or totally torn down and converted to open configurations, a scenario unthinkable in the malls' heyday during the 80's.
Looking throughout the Puget Sound region, with the exception of Bellevue Square's recent expansion and the present remodel to Alderwood Mall, there is not much evidence of new mall activity. Northgate Mall may soon go through a major reconfiguration/expansion, but it's been stalled for years and when it actually goes forward is anyone's guess.
The Mills
The new kid on the block, which many would call a mall, is the Supermall of the Great Northwest.
Based on "The Mills" concept (a name derived from the highly successful Franklin Mills and Sawgrass Mills on the east cost) the Supermall could be described as a discount mall on steroids.
This building is huge! With a choice of four themed entrances from the 4,900 car parking lot, a visitor can walk the 7/8 mile internal loop to shop a million square feet of discount retail stores on one level.
Supermall ads claim of "up to 30-70 percent savings every day," but in an out-of-the-way location and at a scale that would put any good pair of walking shoes to the test, the developers are projecting only two to four visits a year from each customer. But they project at least 16 million visits a year (higher than annual visits to either the Eiffel Tower or Mt. Rushmore, according to the mall's promotional material).
Will it be successful? Since opening Aug. 25, over three million people have visited the Supermall.
The movies
At the recent annual International Council of Shopping Centers convention in Las Vegas, it appeared that if you didn't have an entertainment component in your shopping center, you may as well pack your bags. What a turnaround! Even a project as new as the Supermall has chosen not to include a theater. Why is it then that most other projects are clamoring to get movie theaters, restaurants and affiliated "browse retail" into their projects?
Simple. Movie theater patrons become customers that like to shop both before and after the theater experience. The evening entertainment experience doesn't have to be one dimensional, but can include dinner before or after the movie, browsing before the movie starts and even some significant shopping afterwards to extend the entertainment experience.
Witness the recent success of projects like City Walk in Los Angeles or locally, Pickering Place in Issaquah, with an ACT III theater, Cucina! Cucina! restaurant, Blockbuster Music, and Barnes and Noble Bookstore. At Pickering Place the retailers act as an entertainment hub to such a degree that anyone waiting for a table at the Cucina! Cucina! restaurant is issued a pager so he or she can browse through the bookstore, sample the latest CDs or stroll around the lake located in the middle of the project.
The evening experience of dining, entertainment and retail "wandering" is making for a more complete night out experience than isolated components might offer. And with time such a precious commodity, it actually allows for dinner and a movie during the same night out!
The other big surprise in the world of movie theaters is the trend towards mega screens. And I mean mega! AMC Theaters recently opened a 24-plex theater in Dallas, Texas, called "The Grand" with state-of-the-art seating for 4,800, in auditoriums varying from 130 to 410 seats each. And far from being an anomaly, the 24-plex is AMC's new national prototype!
The developers
There is still plenty of activity for the region's retail developers, but for the most part the opportunities lie in open retail centers aimed exclusively at those tenants who have a carefully honed message, a strong or dominant market niche and the ability to move quickly once a project gets rolling.
The most successful developers strive to create a unified site plan and design scheme that can work successfully as planned, but be flexible enough to accommodate a variety of tenant sizes and individual requirements.
The 400,000-square-foot downtown Woodinville project by TRF Pacific is a good example. While adhering to the strict and demanding guidelines of the city of Woodinville, including the positioning of retail shops right up to the sidewalk on northeast 175th, the developer has created a site plan that is flexible enough to accommodate a variety of tenants while still unified in its look and feel.
This strategy allows the developer to be negotiating with several individual build-to-suit tenants at the same time as the EIS, site plan and conceptual design are coming together.
Even on smaller projects, developers are finding that working with individual tenants during design makes more sense than building generic space and hanging up the 'For Lease' sign.
Jairus Stratton's Maple Building, a 5,000-square-foot urban infill building on Seattle's Capitol Hill, was able to accommodate the needs of Starbuck's Coffee and Hopscotch restaurant during the design phase and was 100 percent leased by the time construction started.
In 1985 William Kowinski published a book entitled "The Malling of America -- An Inside Look at the Great Consumer Paradise." With the growing trend toward open retail centers and the demolition of older mall dinosaurs, perhaps the title of the 1995 rewrite would be "The De-malling of America."
Anyone care to guess where retail is headed in the year 2005?
William A. Fuller AIA is a principal in the architectural firm of Fuller Sears & Smith PC. Based in downtown Seattle, the firm provides site planing and architectural services to a variety of land owners, developers and individual clients throughout the Northwest.