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Weekend


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November 8, 2002

Strange But True!

  • A weekly column of incidental information, off-the-wall observations and other random facts about the world.
    • By BILL SONES and RICH SONES, Ph.D.
    Special to the Journal

    Q. "Take one dose of Regression Toward the Average before bed and call me in the morning." What's the serious side to this statistical quip, and what are its implications for the health of us all?

    A. "Regression toward the average (mean)" is the statistical tendency for any unusual event or outcome (good or bad) to be followed by a more usual or typical one next time. Sounds prosaic, but its reach is profound: After a very good day, a not-as-good day will likely follow. After a career year in baseball, football, whatever, regression to something nearer to normalcy for that player will probably occur. Similarly, movie sequels usually crash compared to their popular originals; best-selling novels are typically followed by less spectacular sellers.


     
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