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October 10, 2003

Strange But True!

  • A weekly column of incidental information, off-the-wall observations and other random facts about the world.
    • By BILL SONES and RICH SONES, Ph.D.
    Special to the Journal

    Q. Why are there so many statistics hounds following the game of baseball, compared with football, soccer, etc.?

    A. Most sports are free-form, but baseball is discrete -- analyzable into 25 well-defined states after each play, say Jim Albert and Jay Bennett in "Curve Ball: Baseball, Statistics, and the Role of Chance in the Game." Consider the bases: There can be none on, runner on 1st, or 2nd, or 3rd, runners on 1st and 2nd, 1st and 3rd, 2nd and 3rd, or bases loaded. Each of these can be with 0, 1, or 2 outs, for 24 total situations (3 x 8), plus one more for 3 outs (inning ends). Batting averages and earned run averages of pitchers can be calculated for each of the 24 situations, plus probabilities of the batting team scoring any runs.


     
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