homeWelcome, sign in or click here to subscribe.login
     


 

 

Weekend


Subscriber content preview

March 23, 2007

Strange But True!

Q. Are those basketball three-pointers shot from “beyond the arc” a good bet or not? What might a mathematician say?

A. “Expectation theory” holds that for any gamble, the “expected” gain, on average, equals the payoff times the likelihood of attaining it. Applied to basketball, three-point shots obviously have bigger payoffs but are harder to make. Team averages show players often hitting a third or more of their three-pointers, usually half or fewer of their two-point field goals. So for a 33 percent (1/3) three-point shooter, his expectation would be roughly 1/3 x 3 points, or a point per attempt; at 50 percent of two-pointers it would be 1/2 times 2, or again 1 point, for these shots. In the long run, then, he'd average about the same number of points whichever shots he “wisely” chose to take. Considerations such as the defense, score, time remaining, fouls also come into play.


 
. . .


To read this story in full login or purchase a subscription.



Previous columns:



Email or user name:
Password:
 
Forgot password? Click here.