January 31, 2000

Canadian report says Fraser River salmon fishery in danger of collapse

VANCOUVER, British Columbia (AP) -- The Fraser River salmon fishery could collapse within a few decades because of global warming, a Canadian government study indicates.

The report issued this week by the Climate Change Secretariat predicts a grim future for the world's most productive sockeye salmon river system, which historically has produced millions of fish caught in U.S. as well as Canadian waters.

Canada has warmed by about a degree in the past century, and the report noted that many long-range forecasters believe temperatures could rise as much as nine degrees Fahrenheit by 2050.

Warmer water means salmon tire faster as they fight upstream for hundreds of miles past rapids and predators to reach their spawning grounds.

"If the summer temperatures go a degree or two higher (Celsius, or 1.8 to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), most of the spawning fish will die, causing a collapse of the salmon resource in the system," the report said.

The report shows more must be done to stop climate change, said Jim Fulton, executive director of the David Suzuki Foundation.

"Government is afraid to lead on this issue because of powerful industry lobbies," Fulton said Thursday. "The oil and coal industries have continued to prevent any meaningful action to protect our climate."

For decades the Fraser has been the most productive salmon river on the West Coast south of Alaska, supporting runs of chinook, coho, pink and chum but principally sockeye.

In 1990-93, annual Fraser sockeye returns averaged 16.3 million fish.

Last summer and fall, for the first time, the entire Fraser sockeye season was canceled when only 3.58 million out of an anticipated run of 8.25 million fish made it into the river.

Washington Gov. Gary Locke declared a state of emergency in Whatcom, Skagit, Snohomish, King, Pierce and Thurston counties and requested aid from the U.S. Small Business Administration, saying the total impact to the state's economy could range from $36 million to $63 million.

In British Columbia, direct losses amount to about $86 million -- nearly $60 million for commercial fishermen and processors, $12.5 million to Indian fishermen and nearly $14 million for the recreational fishing industry.

The new report proposes that Canada spend $48.7 million to $102.3 million annually for five years on 14 measures ranging from climate monitoring and forecasting, to public education programs, to research the origins and causes of global warming.

For the salmon, the report suggests fishing restrictions to let more fish enter the river, compensating for higher mortality from temperature increases.

Other options mentioned in the report include building hatcheries, an increase in fish farming and boosting flows into the river to keep the water colder.