Temperature's rising, and so is need for expert help

By JON SAVELLE
Journal Environmental editor

Along with mass production, consumer economies and ever more products and inventions, the Industrial Revolution of the 19th Century has given us global warming.

The reason is, of course, that the industrialized world is now dependent upon fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas. Their combustion releases carbon dioxide into the air, trapping heat that normally would radiate away into space.

Today the atmospheric concentration of this "greenhouse gas" is nearly double what it was before the dawn of the industrial age. And it may triple or quadruple before fossil fuels are exhausted.

Already, however, the temperature has gone up half a degree Fahrenheit in the northern hemisphere. While this may seem like a small difference, a new report, prepared by the nonprofit Climate Solutions, in Olympia, says its effects will be anything but small, even in the cool and rainy Northwest.

Carbon sequestration is one proposal for dealing with global warming issues. The owners of forests, farms and wetlands - which act as sponges for carbon dioxide - could trade or sell their "carbon credits" to others who need them. Photo by Jon Savelle

In response, Climate Solutions calls for nothing less than a second industrial revolution, based on renewable energy.

It's not just pie in the sky. The Northwest, in particular, boasts one of the world's greatest concentrations of companies on the cutting edge of renewable-energy development. Climate Solutions urges supporting them as models for the rest of the world to emulate and to buy from.

"The most successful business strategy is to have an answer to a problem, like insurance, computers, law and medicine," says Patrick Mazza, author of the Climate Solutions report.

"If we acknowledge that we have a global warming problem, solutions are huge."

Mazza mentioned just a few approaches that hold tremendous promise - not only for attacking global warming, but as business ventures in themselves. One is the idea of carbon sequestration, or using forests, farms, wetlands or woodlots as sponges for CO2, which would confer "carbon credits" upon the owners. The credits could be traded or sold to others who need them.

Many other examples are to be found in the alternative-energy industry. Mazza mentioned a couple from the Northwest: Avista, in Spokane, is testing a compact fuel cell that produces 750 watts of electricity for use in homes or businesses; and Northwest Energy Systems, in Bend, Ore., has a new fuel-separation membrane for fuel cells that makes them more efficient.

"The question is, will the Northwest build on the cluster of companies we have now?" Mazza said.

The state of Washington is certainly aware of the potential. Gov. Gary Locke sees renewable-energy equipment and expertise as potential export products, with a global market

"It's the leading edge," Mazza said. "Here's where the jobs are going to be. If we're seriously going to change from fossil fuels ... that is just going to be phenomenal."

In the meantime, climate change will continue. And just building a green industrial base won't halt it. So, Mazza thinks there will be great demand for expertise in areas where adaptations will have to be made. Those include water conservation, for one, and zoning - particularly as it relates to development in flood-prone areas.

As for development, one option is not to develop, and to make money by not doing so. It's the carbon-sequestration idea, which has been around for at least six years, and which assigns market value to land uses that capture atmospheric carbon. Those include maintaining standing forests, protecting wetlands and even adopting certain farming practices.

Lately there have been attempts in the Washington State Legislature to get carbon sequestration off the ground, to no avail.

Dianne Ellison, of Ellison Timber in Aberdeen, lobbied for a bill that would have established a task force on carbon sequestration. Though the bill went nowhere, the idea has adherents in the Northwest. Ellison said the Pacific Northwest Carbon Sequestration Coalition has over 60 members, mainly rural conservation and development districts.

The idea also has its detractors. One of them is energy policy analyst Fred Munson, who says the notion of trading carbon is the same as buying the right to pollute, which he finds philosophically unpalatable.

Recent local efforts to promote carbon sequestration, such as Ellison's, envision carbon banks in the Northwest. But on a larger scale, Munson says the issue is global.

"Essentially, western industrial countries will be buying from third world countries," he said. "It's an end-of-the-pipe solution. We won't change our practices; we'll ask people in third world countries to help us by planting more forests.

"The ultimate solution is going to be, trying to wean ourselves away from fossil fuel. This doesn't help."

Dennis Lettenmaier, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Washington, has studied the local effects of global warming. He has paid particular attention to water resources and hydroelectric power generation.

"It all has to do with snow," he said. "All our rivers, with few exceptions, are dominated by snowmelt. It's not surprising that, if things get warmer, on average, snow lines go up, on average."

And, just as gushing snowmelt gives the Cascade Mountains their name, a rise in snow lines will have a cascade of consequences. But they won't be good. Peak stream flows, for example, will be pushed back from June to May, reducing the amount of hydropower than can be produced reliably.

At the same time, additional flood protection will be needed during the winter and early spring, necessitating drawdowns of reservoirs that normally would power the region in the dry months.

It will be difficult to compensate for this shortfall. Lettenmaier said mitigation could involve greater use of groundwater recharge, for storage; but "we face a large potential problem with fisheries."

He noted that there is a water-demand component to the problem also. If the climate warms, it pushes up demands for "urban irrigation," or lawn watering.

"The sizing of municipal water systems is all related to summer demands," Lettenmaier said. "Peak demands for residential [use] are double in summer what they are in winter. Most of it has to do with lawn watering.

"And you're effectively losing storage."

Besides groundwater recharge, remedies may include additional surface-water storage and demand management. But Lettenmaier said that, so far, regional water planners haven't started thinking about global warming. Their immediate concerns have to do with an increasing demand for water, driven by population growth.

At some point, Lettenmaier said, the regulatory apparatus will have to kick in. He expects to see mandatory conservation become a standard element of water distribution plans.

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